Even in Caucuses and Primaries People are Choosing the Lesser of Two (or Three) Evils
To one Iowan who favors Arizona Governor Bill Richardson, it looks like Barack Obama or John Edwards may be the lesser of three evils (Hillary Clinton being the third). The excerpt below comes from a piece on NPR this morning, Iowa Caucuses Do or Die for Some Democrats, by David Greene:
As one of the candidates with lower poll numbers, Richardson’s best hope for doing well in the caucuses may be winning over people like Tony Ross. [...] Ross tells Richardson he’s worried about Hillary Clinton getting the nomination because he thinks she may lose to a Republican.
“So my biggest fear going to caucus for Richardson is that I would drain support from someone else,” Ross says.
Richardson has no easy answer. He says that if he gets the nomination, he could beat a Republican.
Afterwards, when asked if he plans to caucus for Richardson, Ross says he is unsure. Richardson is hands down his favorite, he says. Still, Ross does not know if Richardson will have the resources to stay in the race in the long term.
“I’m afraid if I throw my support to him and he does not get enough bounce out of Iowa, it drains support from Edwards and Obama, and Mrs. Clinton comes out as the eventual nominee. That just worries me,” Ross says.
This just kills me. Seriously. You should have seen heard me screaming in the shower. This mindset would be easier to stomach were it not for the fact that I have listened to this same “wasted vote myth” be repeated over and over again this election season. If ever there were a time to cast a vote for the person you really wanted to support, would it not be now when the major parties have yet to select their candidate? Wake up America! Stop listening to the pundits, the pollsters and playing into the self-fulfilling prophecies and simply vote your conscience!
The cure for this particular disease is simple: IRV.
the lesser of Two Elvis’
@alice: interesting concept … not sure what I think about it yet (at a glance the pros and cons are both compelling). Thanks for the link.
@stelmodad: hehehe … you’ve inspired me to stay up an extra hour and do some photoshopping (click image to enlarge).
Well put. Imagine a parent giving in to their child’s desire to do drugs because, statistically, they can’t win out over peer pressure. Ridiculous.
nice photoshop work! Wow, that might actually help his campaign…
HaHa!
My only quibble is that the lesser of two Elvises would have to be the thin Elvis, and that image looks suspiciously like the fat Elvis…
I agree…and that is in fact a 1970′s Elvis, but Edward’s face was easier to fit to the fat Elvis.
Scott,
I agree that people should “vote their conscience”, however, the structure of the Iowa Caucuses (which I’ll be attending in a few hours) forces supporters of less popular candidates to have a second choice.
Basically, if a person’s supported candidate doesn’t get 15% of the vote at a caucus, candidate is eliminated and the person must align with another candidate until someone has the majority vote. It’s like a town hall meeting with debating and everything.
Well this – both the interviewee and this post – shows a bit of misunderstanding about the political process of the Iowa Caucuses…
I personally am for Biden. But the way the caucuses work may make it impossible in the end for me to support Biden.
Say 100 people show up and less than 15 of us show support for Biden, our Biden group has to be persuasive enough to get a total of 15 people to affiliate with us.
If there are only 3 or 4 Biden supporters at the caucus site and it is unlikely we’ll sway others to joing us, our 3 or 4 votes are essentially up for grabs. The other groups closer to viability will have to sway us to join with their particular candidates.
The interviewee should absolutely go in intending to caucus for Richardson, but he should also have an alternate choice in mind in case Richardson does not have enough support to have a viable group.
@Jake & jim: Thanks for helping clarify that point. I am aware of how a caucus differs from a primary and would have done better to note that in the post (which wasn’t necessarily directed just at Iowa since I’ve heard the same sentiments from primary voters).
So what do you Iowans think of the caucus process? It seems to me that for all the benefits of being able to come to a collective agreement, there is also the potential for bullying and caving too quickly to peer pressure. I’m reminded of the jury deliberations in which I’ve participated.
@Scott: I think those are valid concerns, but I do see benefits in the process.
In 2004, I went in supporting Howard Dean and my precinct ended up nominating John Kerry. I wasn’t really that upset because I wasn’t totally sold on Dean, and I felt that I participated in something bigger than myself. I voted for Kerry in the general election as well.
In addition, I encouraged my girlfriend to attend her caucus, even though she doesn’t know much about the candidates or even politics in general. It will be a great learning experience for her and I think that’s one of the selling points of the process. Unlike a primary, you don’t have to go in knowing for whom you’re voting. You can simply go just to participate and learn and get a better sense of what’s happening.
I just remember thinking in 2004 how much fun the whole thing was, and I’m excited for tonight.
I’ll tell you tomorrow! I was for Wesley Clark last time around and I only had three people in my group so I had to switch.
I know I will be disappointed if my candidate does not have a viable group and I have to switch to another.
But I suppose in that regards its just representative of the overall political process in that the power goes to the majority.
It was interesting…my wife and I went in supporting Biden. There were nine of us and we needed 41 in our precinct to make a viable group!! Not a chance at persuading anyone to join us.
Some of the other groups who were going for other less popular candidates (dodd and richardson) immediately disbanded and affiliated with other more popular candidates. I spoke to one Richardson supporter who said they totaled all the people supporting Biden, Richardson, and Dodd and that the number was less than the 41 needed to support a viable group. That was when the Richardson group decided to disband and everyone went to support their candidate of 2nd choice.
Our Biden group decided to hold strong as a way to make a statement to our precinct. (After a half hour all groups report their candidate and their number of supporters and then the members of non-viable groups have to either affiliate with another candidate or declare they are independent.) All nine of us knew who are 2nd choice was so after we reported and were declared non-viable we immediately went to the other candidates of choice.
Interestingly enough I heard lots of people last night say they really liked biden, but they didn’t think he had much of a chance.
I wonder if more to the point of your original post if all those who expressed really liking him and if they had stood up for him if he would have had a chance at a viable group in our caucus.